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Orbital Debris Threat Map

Space Situational Awareness · CelesTrak / USSPACECOM · Live TLE Data · SGP4 Propagation

Objects Tracked
Debris Objects
Active Satellites
High-Risk Zone (700–900 km)
GEO / Graveyard Objects
Loading orbital data…
Subsatellite Ground Tracks
Debris Field
Active Satellites
Starlink Constellation
High-Risk Zone (700–900 km)
GEO / Graveyard
CRS: WGS84 Geodetic · SGP4/TEME→ECEF→Geodetic · WebGL Globe Hover globe for coordinates Rendering: subsatellite ground tracks · color = object class Objects rendered: —

Debris Density by Altitude

Objects per 200 km altitude band · LEO shell analysis
Peak congestion near 780 km — primary debris accumulation zone. Kessler cascade threshold is approaching critical density in this shell.

Kessler Syndrome Indicators

Cascade risk metrics · LEO debris growth
Total Tracked Objects
↑ ~340/yr
% Debris vs. Active
Growing
630+
Fragmentation Events
Cumulative
APPROACHING
LEO Cascade Threshold
780 km shell
8.7
Objects / 100 km³ (LEO)
Critical > 10
GEO Graveyard Objects
Above GEO ring
Cascade Risk Index
LowModerateHighCritical
72 / 100 — HIGH

Conjunction Warning Feed

Active CDM alerts · Space-Track.org · Pc threshold > 1×10⁻⁵
API NOTE Live CDM data requires Space-Track.org authentication. Displaying representative conjunction events based on published alerts.

Debris Field Attribution

Major fragmentation events · tracked debris by origin
EventYearObjects% Total
Fengyun-1C ASAT Test2007~3,5009.6%
Cosmos 2251 Collision2009~2,0005.5%
Cosmos 1408 ASAT Test2021~1,5004.1%
Iridium 33 Collision2009~6001.6%
Other Fragmentation EventsVarious~14,40039.5%
Total Debris60.3%

Technical Methodology

GIS Portfolio · Space Situational Awareness Dashboard · March 2026

Data Pipeline

Orbital element data is fetched directly from CelesTrak (celestrak.org) via their REST API in TLE (Two-Line Element) format. Five object groups are loaded in parallel: active satellites, Starlink constellation, Cosmos 2251 debris, Fengyun-1C debris, and Cosmos 1408 debris. Data is refreshed from source on each page load with a 6-hour browser cache.

Orbital Propagation (SGP4)

Object positions are computed using the SGP4/SDP4 perturbation model via the satellite.js library, a JavaScript port of the canonical NORAD SGP4 implementation. Each TLE set is propagated to the current UTC time, producing position and velocity vectors in the TEME (True Equator, Mean Equinox) reference frame.

Coordinate Reference System Transformations

TEME
SGP4 Output
Earth-Centered Inertial
ECEF
Earth-Centered
Earth-Fixed (ITRF)
WGS84
Geodetic
Lat / Lon / Alt
EPSG:4326
Map Projection
Equirectangular

The GMST (Greenwich Mean Sidereal Time) rotation matrix is applied to transform TEME to ECEF. Geodetic coordinates are then derived using the WGS84 ellipsoid parameters. Subsatellite points are projected onto the map using an equirectangular (plate carrée) projection — EPSG:4326 — which provides a 1:1 mapping between geographic coordinates and pixel coordinates at the equator.

Spatial Analysis

Density analysis is performed by binning objects into 200 km altitude bands and computing object counts per band. The 700–900 km LEO shell is flagged as a High-Risk Zone due to known debris field concentration from the 2007 Fengyun-1C and 2009 Cosmos 2251/Iridium 33 events. Objects within this shell are symbolized separately to convey collision risk.

The Kessler Syndrome risk index is a composite metric based on: total debris ratio, LEO object density per 100 km³, annual fragmentation rate, and proximity to the critical density threshold estimated by NASA orbital debris researchers at approximately 10 objects per 100 km³ in the 700–900 km shell.

Cartographic Design

The base map uses Natural Earth country boundaries (1:110 million scale) rendered via D3-geo on HTML5 Canvas. A 30° graticule provides spatial reference. Objects are symbolized by a five-category classification scheme using a diverging color palette designed for dark backgrounds. Layer opacity and dot size are scaled by object category to reduce visual clutter at high object densities.

Data Sources & Attribution

SourceDatasetFormatUpdate Freq.
CelesTrak (USSPACECOM)GP Element Sets (TLE/OMM)TLE TextMultiple daily
Natural EarthCountry Boundaries 1:110mTopoJSONStatic
NASA ODPOOrbital Debris Quarterly NewsPDF/LiteratureQuarterly
ESA DISCOSFragmentation Event CatalogLiteratureAs-published

Limitations

  • SGP4 propagation accuracy degrades for TLE epochs older than 14 days. Objects with stale TLEs (>30 days) are flagged with reduced opacity.
  • The conjunction warning feed uses representative CDM data; live Space-Track.org CDM access requires authenticated API access not available in client-side deployments.
  • Objects below 160 km altitude are typically undergoing atmospheric reentry and may appear at invalid positions.
  • Classified military satellites (~1,000 objects) are not included in public TLE catalogs.